The impact of visualization on flexible Bayesian reasoning

There is wide consensus that visualizations of statistical information can support Bayesian reasoning. This article focusses on the conceptual understanding of Bayesian reasoning situations and investigates whether the tree diagram or the unit square is more appropriate to support the understanding of the influence of the base rate, which is introduced as being a part of flexible Bayesian reasoning. As a statistical graph, the unit square reflects the influence of the base rate not only in a numerical but also in a geometrical way. Accordingly, in two experiments with undergraduate students (N = 148 and N = 143) the unit square outperformed the tree diagram referring to the understanding of the influence of the base rate. Our results could inform the discussion about how to visualize Bayesian situations and has practical consequences for the teaching and learning of statistics

A training in visualizing statistical data with a unit square

International audienceRecent research yielded empirical evidence for a unit square being a useful visualization of Bayesian situations. However, most of the studies in the research field of visualizing Bayesian problem situations were conducted in well-controlled experimental settings with university students as parti¬cipants. Therefore, we focus in this paper on a training study with 38 eleventh graders in school about visualizing statistical data with a unit square for coping with Bayesian problem situations. Firstly, we outline some theoretical and empirical basics concerning research about Bayesian situations and a unit square as a facilitating visualization tool. Afterwards, we present a short training sequence in using the unit square effectively. We report on methods, implementation and results of a pilot study in school. The promising results were discussed at the end

Matematizando situaciones Bayesianas en la escuela usando múltiples representaciones

III Congreso Internacional Virtual de Educación Estadística (CIVEEST), 21-24 febrero de 2019. [www.ugr.es/local/fqm126/civeest.html]Bayesian problem situations are well known as being difficult for people to judge adequately. Teachers in school are confronted with the question what can be done on the long run to support their students in coping with Bayesian situations. In this regard the paper refers to the learning about mathematizing Bayesian situations in school, especially focused on using the unit square in settings of learning with multiple representations. Firstly, the topic of Bayesian reasoning will be analysed from the different perspectives of mathematical, modelling, and mathematizing structure. Afterwards, potentials of theories of learning with multiple representations will be reflected within the topic of Bayesian reasoning. Bringing both together yields in in a 2x2 matrix which allows for categorizing task types about Bayesian situations.Se conocen bien las dificultades de las personas para juzgar adecuadamente las situaciones- problemas Bayesianas. Los profesores se enfrentan en la escuela a la cuestión de qué se puede hacer a largo plazo para apoyar a sus estudiantes en la resolución de situaciones Bayesianas. A este respecto este artículo refiere al aprendizaje de la matematización de situaciones Bayesianas en la escuela, especialmente centrado en el uso del cuadrado unidad en entornos de aprendizaje con múltiples representaciones. En primer lugar, se analizará el tema del razonamiento Bayesiano desde las diferentes perspectivas de matematización y modelización de la estructura matemática. Seguidamente, el potencial de teorías del aprendizaje que tienen en cuenta el uso de múltiples representaciones será reflejado dentro del tópico del razonamiento Bayesiano. Conjuntando ambos campos se elabora una matriz de 2x2 que permite la categorización de tipos de tareas sobre situaciones Bayesianas

Desde la investigación sobre razonamiento Bayesiano a la intervención en el aula

III Congreso Internacional Virtual de Educación Estadística (CIVEEST), 21-24 febrero de 2019. [www.ugr.es/local/fqm126/civeest.html]Dealing with Bayes’ rule is the mathematical part of judgement in situations of uncertainty. These situations are of importance for crucial judgements in medicine, law and further professions. Since laymen and experts have severe difficulties of applying Bayes’ rule, the question how to facilitate dealing with Bayesian situations, i.e. situations in which Bayes’ rule could be applied is posed. Our research built upon the well-established facilitating strategy of using natural frequencies as information format in Bayesian situations. On this basis, we have investigated different visualizations and developed a training of dealing and understanding Bayesian situations. Our results suggest that the unit square and the double tree diagram are appropriate visualizations for a training concerning Bayesian situations and that also a brief training has strong effects.La parte matemática del razonamiento en situaciones de incertidumbre implica el uso del teorema de Bayes. Estas situaciones son importantes para la emisión de juicios en medicina, derecho y otras profesiones. Puesto que tanto las personas ordinarias como los expertos tiene dificultades severas para aplicar el teorema de Bayes, se plantea la cuestión de cómo facilitar el tratamiento de las situaciones de Bayes, esto es, situaciones en las que la regla de Bayes puede ser aplicada. Nuestra investigación se basa en la estrategia facilitadora bien establecida de usar frecuencias naturales como formato de información en situaciones Bayesianas. Sobre esta base, hemos investigado diferentes visualizaciones y desarrollado una intervención formativa para tratar y comprender situaciones Bayesianas. Nuestros resultados sugieren que el cuadrado unitario y el doble diagrama en árbol son visualizaciones apropiadas para el entrenamiento relativo a las situaciones Bayesianas y que incluso un breve entrenamiento tiene fuertes efectos

Distinct subpopulations of mechanosensory chordotonal organ neurons elicit grooming of the fruit fly antennae.

Diverse mechanosensory neurons detect different mechanical forces that can impact animal behavior. Yet our understanding of the anatomical and physiological diversity of these neurons and the behaviors that they influence is limited. We previously discovered that grooming of the Drosophila melanogaster antennae is elicited by an antennal mechanosensory chordotonal organ, the Johnston's organ (JO) (Hampel et al., 2015). Here, we describe anatomically and physiologically distinct JO mechanosensory neuron subpopulations that each elicit antennal grooming. We show that the subpopulations project to different, discrete zones in the brain and differ in their responses to mechanical stimulation of the antennae. Although activation of each subpopulation elicits antennal grooming, distinct subpopulations also elicit the additional behaviors of wing flapping or backward locomotion. Our results provide a comprehensive description of the diversity of mechanosensory neurons in the JO, and reveal that distinct JO subpopulations can elicit both common and distinct behavioral responses

Measuring people’s covariational reasoning in Bayesian situations

Previous research on Bayesian reasoning has typically investigated people’s ability to assess a posterior probability (i.e., a positive predictive value) based on prior knowledge (i.e., base rate, true-positive rate, and false-positive rate). In this article, we systematically examine the extent to which people understand the effects of changes in the three input probabilities on the positive predictive value, that is, covariational reasoning. In this regard, two different operationalizations for measuring covariational reasoning (i.e., by single-choice vs. slider format) are investigated in an empirical study with N = 229 university students. In addition, we aim to answer the question wheter a skill in “conventional” Bayesian reasoning is a prerequisite for covariational reasoning

Gentherapie der Hämophilie: Empfehlung der Gesellschaft für Thrombose- und Hämostaseforschung (GTH).

Gene therapy has recently become a realistic treatment perspective for patients with haemophilia. Reviewing the literature and our personal experience from clinical trials, we discuss key aspects of haemophilia A and B gene therapy with vectors derived from adeno-associated virus (AAV), including predictable results, risks, adverse events, and patient-reported outcomes. Patient selection, informed consent, administration, and monitoring of gene therapy as well as data collection are explained. We also discuss the need for interdisciplinary cooperation with hepatology and other specialties. We emphasize structural and organizational requirements for treatment centres according to the hub-and-spoke model and recommend the use of electronic diaries to ensure safe and timely collection and exchange of data. Electronic diaries will play a key role as primary source of data for pharmacovigilance, post-marketing clinical studies, national and international registries, as well as health technology and benefit assessment. Reimbursement aspects and the future of gene therapy in adolescents and children are also considered. In a rapidly evolving scientific environment, these recommendations aim to support treatment providers and payers to prepare for the implementation of gene therapy following marketing authorization

Behavioral observations, heart rate and heart rate variability in horses following oral administration of a cannabidiol containing paste in three escalating doses (part 1/2)

Cannabidiol (CBD) products have been proposed to exert stress- and anxiety-relieving effects in animals. Despite the increasing popularity of CBD for veterinary use, the available research detailing the effects of CBD in horses is limited. The aim of this study (part 1 of 2) was to analyze stress parameters via behavioral observations and heart rate monitoring in healthy horses following single oral administration of a CBD containing paste in different doses. Study products were two pastes for oral administration, one containing CBD and one containing no active ingredient. Pastes were applied as single administrations in consecutive trials with escalating dosages (doses: 0.2, 1.0, 3.0 mg CBD/kg) to a treatment (trial 1: n = 3, trial 2: n = 3, trial 3: n = 5 horses) and a control group (trial 1: n = 3, trial 2: n = 3, trial 3: n = 6 horses) with minimum wash-out periods of seven days in between. Behavioral parameters were evaluated using video recordings to score the levels of sedation including the horses' reactions to acoustic and visual stimuli. Facial expression was assessed using photographs. Evaluation was based on the previously described facial sedation scale for horses (FaceSed) and the Horse Grimace Scale. For baseline values, identical observations were recorded on the day before each paste administration. Both paste administration and behavioral evaluation were performed double blinded. Cardiac beat-to-beat (R-R) intervals were continuously recorded throughout the trial and assessed using heart rate and heart rate variability parameters. Statistical analysis included comparison between treatment and control group over escalating doses and time points using linear mixed models. The CBD paste was well tolerated, and no side effects were observed. Analysis of sedation scores and facial expressions did not indicate significant differences between treatment and control group over the escalating doses. The heart rate was neither reduced, nor were significant changes in heart rate variability observed compared to the control group. Main limitation of this study is the small sample size. Further research is required to determine adequate doses and indications for the use of CBD products in horses